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Do You Believe in Diminishing Probability?
http://www.penandpapergames.com/forums/showthread.php/29768-Do-You-Believe-in-Diminishing-Probability?goto=newpost
Sat, 27 Sep 2014 18:10:40 GMTSome people have that special dice that most recently rolled a NAT 1, meaning its less likely to roll a 1 again in the future because the odds that...Some people have that special dice that most recently rolled a NAT 1, meaning its less likely to roll a 1 again in the future because the odds that it rolls 1 twice are 1/400 right? How true is that, or is it just superstition?

This is basically the same as the old "flip a coin three times" question.

There's a %50 chance you'll flip a coin heads or tails no matter how many times you've flipped it prior. The previous tests have no contribution to the current test. But at the same time, there's 8 possible outcomes of flipping a coin three times. So a %12/5 chance of getting any of those results.

As the results come in the probability increases. The first flip is Heads for example, 4/8 possible ends are eliminated leaving you a %25 chance of getting either H-H-H, or H-T-H, or H-H-T, or H-T-T.

It's all very complicated for the guy who failed math class (me) but I'm interested to see what other people think about it.